Mehmet Oz, a Republican running for the Pennsylvania Senate, has been trailing Democrat John Fetterman by more than six points in previous polls, but is now within four points of Fetterman.
Fetterman is in the lead by two, three, or four points according to polls taken in mid- to late-Sept. by The Trafalgar Group, Fox News, Franklin & Marshall College, WTXF Philadelphia, and Emerson College. According to the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight averages, the lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania has a 4.1-point and 6-point advantage over Oz, respectively.
According to Robert Cahaly, head pollster at Trafalgar Group, “We’re seeing all these races tighten, especially with Biden’s numbers. When Oz discusses crime, and when it is mentioned that Fetterman wants to empty the prisons, it is helpful.”
After both candidates received their nominations, polls showed Fetterman leading Oz by double digits, despite the Democrat’s absence from the campaign trail due to a catastrophic stroke. In many appearances, Fetterman has occasionally had trouble speaking, so he postponed a debate with Oz until late October. According to Fetterman and his campaign, he is still trying to improve his speech and auditory processing.
Although Oz initially had trouble with a string of mistakes, he has now centered his attention on crime and Fetterman’s long-standing support for the release of many inmates and earlier support for decriminalizing narcotics. In Philadelphia’s inner city, Oz has also participated in political rallies. In early September, he shared the stage with former President Donald Trump.
Oz has started to close the financial difference between the two contenders. The Oz campaign is expected to outspend Fetterman’s organization by $6 million on advertising in October, despite the fact that through the first two quarters of 2022, Fetterman outraised Oz both locally and nationally. Early in September, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is allied with Kentucky’s Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, unveiled a $3.67 million ad purchase in favor of Oz.
The majority of electoral analysts believe that control of the upper chamber is up for grabs, with Pennsylvania likely to be the decisive state. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have a 68% probability of taking control of the Senate, with a 51-49 split being the most likely result.