In his analysis of the 2024 election, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria stated on Sunday night that he believed Joe Biden had little chance of winning in November.
After the turmoil of COVID-19 and the big evil orange guy, Donald Trump, Zakaria stated that he first thought that Biden’s route to success in 2024 would depend on the stability he vowed to give in 2020. This belief persisted when he evaluated President Biden’s reelection campaign.
However, Zakaria predicted that Trump will split Republicans, with many of them yearning for candidates like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. This rift would cause Democrats to become more energized, freeing Biden to focus on swing states and independents.
Zakaria did admit, though, that nothing has turned out the way he had planned.
Zakaria said that “Trump is currently winning in practically all the swing states.” However, there is even more troubling data hidden beneath those figures. Since I am concerned about the likelihood of a second Trump term, I believe it is important to be realistic. I am aware that polls are not always reliable. However, rather than overestimating Donald Trump’s support, they have often tended to underestimate it. I suspect that the nation is home to many timid Biden supporters.”
He mentioned the standard Biden talking points about how great the economy is, and then he acknowledged that “Biden is receiving little credit for it.”
“This is a drastic departure,” Zakaria said. “An NBC survey from January indicates that Trump leads Biden by 22 points when it comes to who Americans trust more to handle the economy. In comparison to the 2020 survey, this indicates a 15-point increase for Trump.”
“Maybe this is because, impacting every American on a daily basis, inflation is a much more ubiquitous issue than unemployment,” he said.
You think?
Zakaria then acknowledged that Biden is still unable to get a break when it comes to cultural problems. Though he believes Democrats may gain from the Republican Party’s stance on abortion, Biden falls well short on immigration, which, according to surveys, is a more pressing issue. Given that the debate over abortion regulation has returned to the states, Zakaria is even less optimistic that it will play a big role in the election.
However, Zakaria is particularly concerned by the Democratic Party’s lack of cohesion about the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Republicans “appears to be coalescing around Trump.”
“Most of the resistance he encountered during the primary has vanished,” he said.
And then Zakaria made the most important concession of all.
“And the cases against him, which he believes are politically motivated, keep him in the public eye, enrage his following, which views him as a martyr, and may even help to make him the target of some compassion,” he added. “This is true from my perspective.” I question whether the New York indictment would have included a defendant named Donald Trump.
Although Zakaria acknowledges that things may change, he does not think they will. He cited polls that suggested a conviction of a felony by Trump may swing votes in favor of Biden, although it seems implausible. He hinted that the administration might mediate an end to hostilities in Gaza and work toward a more comprehensive political agreement that would give Palestinians political rights and strengthen Israel’s diplomatic ties. This could swing political winds in his favor, but when have Biden and his team shown any ability to manage the Israel-Hamas conflict thus far? Even though there are still hostages among Americans, ceasefire accords have broken down many times, and Biden has denied providing help to Israel.
When the ’24 race began to take shape, I thought Pres. Biden had a strong pitch to voters: a rebounding economy and a return to normalcy after the chaos of Covid & Trump.
Things haven’t played out that way.
My take: pic.twitter.com/WAwifAZjfB
— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) May 12, 2024
In the end, Zakaria acknowledged that Biden is not benefiting from the “trendlines.”
“He needs to do something bold and dramatic to grab the initiative—on asylum policy, for example—and reverse these figures,” he says, adding that “there is very little that Joe Biden can do today to change that view” because of the sharp swing in the numbers since 2020.
Author: Blake Ambrose
